Analyzing Tourism-Led Economic Growth in Banten Province: A Semi-Log Regression Approach and Econometric Re-Evaluation

Abstract

Introduction/Main Objectives: This study re-evaluates the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis in Banten Province by comparing the effects of tourist arrivals and hotel room occupancy on regional economic growth. Research Methods: Quarterly time-series data from 2018–2025 (N = 32) obtained from BPS Banten were analysed using a semi-logarithmic regression model with SPSS 27. Finding/Results: Tourist arrivals and hotel room occupancy jointly explained 56.7% of economic growth variation. However, high visitor numbers did not necessarily generate substantial value added, while high room occupancy may still be constrained by limited spending spillovers and regional tourism bottlenecks. Conclusion: Tourism policy should shift from mass visitor growth toward yield-driven strategies emphasizing longer stays, higher tourist spending, and stronger local supply-chain integration.